Steve On Broadway (SOB)

Tony Predictions: Who Cares What I Think?

Tony Predictions: Who Cares What I Think?

Stealing a line from Rocco at What's Good, What Blows In New York Theatre, who cares what I think in terms of predicting this year's Tony Awards?!

(UPDATED June 9, 2010: To view my Tony predictions from this year's field of nominees, please click here)

Not only have I offered my picks for the shows I believe Tony nominators will choose for this year's awards over at Just Shows To Go You (you'll find some of my explanations of those choices at the close of this post), but I also offer you my personal picks for each of the major awards here after having seen every single new show that opened on Broadway this season.

You'll note that Brighton Beach Memoirs figures prominently on my list below. Even though the Tony Administration Committee ruled it ineligible for any awards due to its premature closing, I am not bound by their rules and thus am selecting those whom I believe are truly the most deserving. But also bowing to the committee's decision, you'll find alternative choices listed as well.

Also, it should be noted that I have paired the exceptional projection designers with their respective scenic designers. Since this is a growing design element for an ever-increasing number of stage shows, I believe that it's high time the Tony Administration Committee offered an award for Best Projection Design (not to mention recognition for Best Ensemble).

So, as if you really cared, here are my personal picks in each of the Tony categories:

Best Play
Enron
Red
Superior Donuts
Time Stands Still

Best Musical
Everyday Rapture
Fela!
Memphis
Sondheim On Sondheim

Best Revival of a Play
Brighton Beach Memoirs
Fences
Lend Me A Tenor
Oleanna

Since Brighton Beach Memoirs is ineligible due to its premature closing, I would select The Royal Family in its place.

Best Revival of a Musical
A Little Night Music
Finian's Rainbow
La Cage Aux Folles
Ragtime

Best Actor in a Play
Norbert Leo Butz - Enron
Daniel Craig - A Steady Rain
Michael McKean - Superior Donuts
Alfred Molina - Red
Denzel Washington - Fences

Best Actress in a Play
Viola Davis - Fences
Linda Lavin - Collected Stories
Laura Linney - Time Stands Still
Jan Maxwell - The Royal Family
Laurie Metcalf - Brighton Beach Memoirs

Since Brighton Beach Memoirs has been ruled ineligible due to its premature closing, I would select Valerie Harper from Looped in place of Laurie Metcalf.

Best Actor in a Musical
Alexander Hanson - A Little Night Music
Douglas Hodge - La Cage Aux Folles
Chad Kimball - Memphis
Sahr Ngujah - Fela!
Jim Norton - Finian's Rainbow

Best Actress in a Musical
Kate Baldwin - Finian's Rainbow
Montego Glover - Memphis
Christiane Noll - Ragtime
Sherie Rene Scott - Everyday Rapture
Catherine Zeta-Jones - A Little Night Music

Best Featured Actor in a Play
Chris Chalk - Fences
Jon Michael Hill - Superior Donuts
Brian d'Arcy James - Times Stands Still
Eddie Redmayne - Red
Noah Robbins - Brighton Beach Memoirs

Since Brighton Beach Memoirs has been ruled ineligible due to its premature closing, I would select Stephen Kunken from Enron in place of Noah Robbins.

Best Featured Actress in a Play
Maria Dizzia - In The Next Room (Or The Vibrator Play)
Rosemary Harris - The Royal Family
Scarlett Johannson - A View From The Bridge
Jan Maxwell - Lend Me A Tenor
Marin Mazzie - Enron

Best Featured Actor in a Musical
Kevin Chamberlin - The Addams Family
Robin De Jesús - La Cage Aux Folles
Christopher Fitzgerald - Finian's Rainbow
Levi Kreis - Million Dollar Quartet
Euan Morton - Sondheim On Sondheim

Best Featured Actress in a Musical
Katie Finneran - Promises, Promises
Jackie Hoffman - The Addams Family
Angela Lansbury - A Little Night Music
Lillias White - Fela!
Terry White - Finian's Rainbow

Best Director of a Play
David Cromer - Brighton Beach Memoirs
Rupert Goold - Enron
Michael Grandage - Red
Kenny Leon - Fences

Since Brighton Beach Memoirs has been ruled ineligible due to its premature closing, I would select Stanley Tucci from Lend Me A Tenor in place of David Cromer

Best Director of a Musical
Christopher Ashley - Memphis
Terry Johnson - La Cage Aux Folles
Bill T. Jones - Fela!
Michael Mayer - American Idiot

Best Musical Score
Joe DiPietro and David Bryan - Memphis
Andrew Lippa - The Addams Family
Branford Marsalis - Fences
Lucy Prebble and Adam Cork - Enron

Best Book of a Musical
Marshall Brickman and Rick Elice - The Addams Family
Joe DiPietro - Memphis
Jim Lewis and Bill T. Jones - Fela!
Dick Scanlan and Sherie Rene Scott - Everyday Rapture

Best Choreography
Warren Carlyle - Finian's Rainbow
Stephen Hoggett - American Idiot
Bill T. Jones - Fela!
Sergio Trujillo - Memphis

Best Orchestrations
Jason Carr - La Cage Aux Folles
August Ericksmoen and Danny Troob - The Addams Family
Aaron Johnson - Fela!
Michael Starobin - Sondheim On Sondheim

Best Scenic Design (Play)
John Lee Beatty - The Royal Family
Wilson Chin - Next Fall
Alexander Dodge - Present Laughter
Anthony Ward (and John Driscoll, Projection Design) - Enron

Best Costume Design (Play)
Jane Greenwood - Present Laughter
Martin Pakledinaz - Lend Me A Tenor
David Zinn - In The Next Room (Or The Vibrator Play)
Catherine Zuber - The Royal Family

Best Lighting Design (Play)
Neil Austin - Hamlet
Russell H. Champa - In The Next Room (Or The Vibrator Play)
Mark Henderson - Enron
Brian MacDevitt - A Behanding In Spokane

Best Sound Design (Play)
Adam Cork - Enron
Michael Hooker and Peter Fitzgerald - Looped
Bray Poor - In The Next Room (Or The Vibrator Play)
David Van Tieghem - After Miss Julie

Best Scenic Design (Musical)
Beowulf Boritt (and Peter Flaherty, Projection Design) - Sondheim On Sondheim
David Gallo (and Shawn Sagady, Projection Design) - Memphis
Christine Jones (and Darrel Maloney, Projection Design) - American Idiot
Tim Shortall - La Cage Aux Folles

Best Costume Design (Musical)
Marina Draghici - Fela!
Santo Loquasto - Ragtime
Phelim McDermott and Julian Crouch - The Addams Family
Matthew Wright - La Cage Aux Folles

Best Lighting Design (Musical)
Kevin Adams - American Idiot
Ken Billington - Finian's Rainbow
Howell Binkley - Memphis
Natasha Katz - The Addams Family

Best Sound Design (Musical)
Robert Kaplowitz - Fela!
Brian Ronan - American Idiot
Dan Moses Schreier - Sondheim On Sondheim
Ken Travis - Memphis

As for that list of nominees I believe the Tony nominators will choose, here's some additional background into my thought process.

In the Best Play category, even though I wasn't wowed by In The Next Room (Or The Vibrator Play), I said it would be hard to imagine the Tony nominators not selecting it given it's the only Pulitzer-nominated show in the bunch. But critical darling Next Fall, another play I was not enamored with, could pull an upset and find itself nominated. Red is probably the only real lock on a nomination.

For Best Musical, I said that American Idiot is likely to get a nod from nominators who want to avoid being labeled stodgy. But didn't they already accomplish that in previous years by nominating far superior shows like Spring Awakening, In The Heights and Passing Strange? They'll really be viewed as stodgy if they opt for pablum like Million Dollar Quartet.

Among the potential nominees in the Best Revival of a Play category, Fences is the only sure-thing lock on a Best Play Revival nod, but I expect A View From The Bridge to be nominated, even though I wasn't as mesmerized as the critics.

As for the Best Revival of a Musical, this is the category where it's really a process of elimination given that there were only six choices. Bye Bye Birdie is automatically scratched off the list first. I can't help but think there's still so much remaining favorable sentiment for Ragtime and Finian's Rainbow that Promises, Promises becomes the odd show out.

As for Best Actor in a Play, which has one of the most crowded field of contenders, there's much talk about Liev Schreiber and Christopher Walken being nominated at the expense of Daniel Craig. Sure A Steady Rain was last fall, but surely Tony nominators will not forget the incredible support Broadway Cares/Equity Fights AIDS received from Craig and Hugh Jackman, who together helped make Broadway a fun place to visit near the end of 2009. Since Craig delivered the truly memorable performance losing himself in a thankless role, he'll be rewarded with a nod.

In the Best Actress in a Play category, now that the Tony Administration committee (rightly) ignored precedent that the role of Rose in Fences was a supporting one, expect to see Viola Davis leading the pack here. Jan Maxwell, Laura Linney and Linda Lavin should also be locks.

So dear readers, what are your thoughts? Do you agree with both my picks for who the Tony nominators will select, as well as my own personal preferences?

This is Steve On Broadway (SOB).

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Labels: Best New Musicals, Best New Plays, Best Revival of Plays, Best Revivals of Musicals, Tony Awards, Tony Nominations, Tony Predictions, Tony Rules

posted by Steve On Broadway (SOB) @ Friday, April 30, 2010